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When did COVID-19 break out in Korea
and where was heavily impacted?
When did COVID-19 break out in Korea
and where was heavily impacted?
The effectiveness of response can be measured by how quickly the government controlled the spread of COVID-19. As shown in figure above from the starting day of the second wave (February 17), it took only around 9 days to reach the highest number of new cases. In its highest new cases, Korea has around 851 cases as of March 2. Considering the limited medical units, the Korean government had to manage excessive demand for medical service at the time.
Data: Korea Center for Disease Control & Prevention, Analyzed by Ko Lab
The Trend of New Cases
The Trend of New Cases
The comprehensive test was launched and the government performed more than 13,000 tests after a week later (Feb 26) of the outbreak in Daegu city. Later on, the number of tests reached 18,199 per day on its top. The number is remarkable given that few countries had enough test kits and skills at that time as Korea did.
As the result of the comprehensive tests, the new cases had rapidly increased and reached to the peak on February 29. It only took 10 days from Daegu outbreak to the peak new cases. This is one of the evidences that Korea successfully contained the spread of COVID-19.
While the new infection cases had significantly dropped since mid-March, the number of tests was still as high as around 10,000 per day until early April. This suggests that the South Korean government was extremely cautious for community infections or another wave of spread.
Data: Korea Center for Disease Control & Prevention, Analyzed by Ko Lab
The number of active patients reach its top on March 12. It implies that the medical stress due to the increasing number of quarantined patients at the hospitals began to be alleviated since March 12. Around 7,470 patients were in the hospitals at the time. More than 80% of them were in Daegu and Geyongbuk Province where the very limited number of hospitals and medical facilities to care patients.
Data: Korea Center for Disease Control & Prevention, Analyzed by Ko Lab
Are the tests effective in detecting infected patients?
Are the tests effective in detecting infected patients?
The effectiveness of tests detecting COVID-19 seems to be found at the early stage in the outbreak. At the early stage of Daegu outbreak, the new cases per new test is around 4%~5%. However, the ratio dropped below 1% after the turning point on March 12.
Data: Korea Center for Disease Control & Prevention, Analyzed by Ko Lab
Case fatality rate lower than other countries
Case fatality rate lower than other countries
The case fatality of Korea is below 2.5%, which is very low compared to the average estimate of WHO, 3.3% or other countries such as Italy, China, US, and UK.
Data: Korea Center for Disease Control & Prevention, Analyzed by Ko Lab
Are male more vulnerable than female???
Are male more vulnerable than female???
In other countries, the male are more infected than the female. Moreover, the death rate of the male is higher than that of the female. Strange pattern in Korea is that the female is infected more than the male. The vulnerability of the female, however, is mainly due to many infection cases at the Daegu outbreak in February in which the female believers are more found in the Shincheonji group.
Data: Korea Center for Disease Control & Prevention, Analyzed by Ko Lab
Are the old infected more than the young?
Are the old infected more than the young?
Infection Trend by Age
Infection Trend by Age
Data: Korea Center for Disease Control & Prevention, Analyzed by Ko Lab
Regional Differences in the Trend of COVID-19
Regional Differences in the Trend of COVID-19
Daegu and Gyeongbuk provinces
Daegu and Gyeongbuk provinces
Daegu and Gyeongbuk provinces were heavily hit by COVID-19 but it was quickly contained by the comprehensive tests, preemptive quarantine of a high-risk group (Shincheonji), etc. The notable pattern is that Gyeongbuk province successfully controlled the spread of COVID-19 from Daegu.
Seoul Metropolitan Area : Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi province
Seoul Metropolitan Area : Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi province
Fears of second wave of infections in Seoul and its surrounding areas grow. On August 15, the number of new confirmed cases in Seoul metropolitan area was 152. Many experts warn that resurgence of COVID-19 in Seoul metropolitan area will outpace the impact of first wave on the grounds of high population density etc.
Data: Korea Center for Disease Control & Prevention, Analyzed by Ko Lab
COVID-19 Confirmed in Korea Spatial Autocorrelation
(20 March 2020)
COVID-19 Confirmed in Korea Spatial Autocorrelation
(20 March 2020)
As shown in Figure, Daegu and Gyeongbuk are the most infected group, and the GINI coefficient is also 0.85, which implies that other provinces are not much infected. One might claim that Daegu and Gyeongbuk outbreak spillover to other regions. However, the spatial correlation (moran’s I) of Korea's entire land is very small, which means that the Korean government successfully contained the local transmission to those areas.
As a result of analyzing the spatial correlations between Seoul-Gyeonggi and Daegu-Gyeongsang regions in Korea, in the case of the Daegu-Gyeongsang region where the group infection was progressed, the spatial correlation was small but significant, whereas the Seoul-Gyeonggi region, the most densely populated region, It was found to be insignificant at the 5% significance level.
Association between the confirmed cases and movements from Daegu-Gyeongbuk to other province (2020.3.6 ~ 2020.3.13)
According to the Korea Highway traffic statistics, in March 2020 was 10.7% reduced compared to the same month of the previous year. Considering that the amount of courier distribution increased by purchasing the daily necessities online, it can be estimated that citizens voluntarily minimized unnecessary movement. Korea has no significant relationship between traffic volume and the number of confirmed persons in Daegu and other regions.
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