Variable used for the analysis

The Center for Systemic Peace has developed and provided Combined Polity Score of 167. In addition to this, CSP also provides various data related to the political system, including the duration of the political system and changes in the system. The variables used in the figure below are GDP per capita(PPP, 2011) as of 2017, taking into account the Combined Polity Score,  and the duration of the political system. The Combined Polity Score is a deduction of authoritarian scores (0-10) from democratic scores(0-10). Thus, the polity score has a value of –10 to 10, and the closer the 10 points, the more mature the democratic system is.

The duration of the political system means how many years have been maintained since the change of government. In this document, a change of government means that the score of a democratic system has changed by more than three points within three years. For example, in Korea, 1987 was the time for regime change. (The pre-1987 democratic system score was –5 and since 1988 it has been 6 points, and it has been improved to 8 points since 1998 and has continued to maintain 8 points.) Forty-six countries, including Egypt, were used in this analysis, and Brunei and the civil war situation of Yemen were classified as missing values. 

The purchasing power parity is the exchange rate that is obtained under the assumption that a country's currency should have the same purchasing power in any country. In other words, the per capita GDP reflecting the purchasing power parity means the ability of one individual to purchase, and it will have the same purchasing power not only in one's country but also in other countries. Therefore, per capita GDP, which reflects purchasing power parity, is being usefully utilized in comparative studies. The per capita GDP used in this analysis is from Penn World Table V 9.1, and in the figure below, the larger the bubble size means higher per capita GDP. 

A map depicting the polity score as a GIS visualization is shown below. In Western Asia, while religious fundamentalism or autocracy prevails, there are countries where democracy prosper such as Lebanon, Israel, Georgia, Armenia and Iraq. Also, Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia, India in South Asia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Indonesia in South-eastern Asia, Mongolia, Korea and Japan in East Asia have high levels of democracy. On the other hand, many ASEAN countries, including Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand, have low scores. The overall score of polity score is low in China, Central Asia and Western Asian countries, showing regional characteristics that distinguish them from India, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea and Japan where democratic system is well established. 

The number of Asian countries used in the analysis is 46 countries, of which 26 are below zero and 20 are above zero. Nineteen countries have less than 20 years of regime maintenance. Among those with more than 20 years of durability, there are 9 democratic and 17 authoritarian states. Geographical distribution shows that many countries, including China and North Korea in East Asia, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand in South-eastern Asia, are showing authoritarian tendencies, although authoritarian countries are mainly distributed in West Asia and Central Asia. In the figure below, given the score of the polity score and GDP per capita, the correlation between the two variables is -0.00005. Especially Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Israel in democratic countries, and oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates which are authoritarian countries have high economic power. 

The Database for Political Institute (DPI) collects and distributes data regarding political institutions, including government forms, administrative heads and parliamentary characteristics. The variables used in this analysis are the types of political systems, representing the form of government specified in the Constitution. The distribution of government forms in Asia includes 29 direct presidential elections, six indirect presidential elections, and 11 parliamentary. The most common form of government in Asia is the presidential system, especially the direct presidential election system. In particular, although there is a modified presidential system consisting of a direct presidential election system and a prime minister appointed by the president, such as South Korea, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. In addition Turkey was classified as a direct presidency although it consists of direct presidential election system and a parliamentary. Also, China, North Korea, Vietnam, and Laos, which adopt socialist political ideology among the six nations of the indirect presidential election system, confirmed that the characteristics of the socialist country are the indirect presidential election based on the socialist one-party dictatorship. 

The following figure shows the polity score and maintenance years of the head of an administration. As of 2020, years of the head of an administration show how many years the incumbent has been in office, and the data has been compiled by referring national websites, news, etc. In the year of one's inauguration, it was counted one year, if the head has been in office more than 6 months, if not, 0 year. In the year of one's second term, the period of one's previous term was also counted. In this analysis, Yemen which is going through a civil war, was excluded, and 46 countries including Egypt were used for the analysis. Overall, the lower the polity score, the higher the duration of the head of an administration, and the countries with the high polity score are all distributed in less than 10 years except Israel. As of 2020, the average period of durability is 12.9 years for authoritarian countries and 3.8 years for democratic countries. What's certain in the analysis is that countries with high polity score have a shorter tenure. Although the durability of North Korea, China, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Saudi Arabia is less than 10 years, since they adopted communist or autocracy as political system, power by the same group(one-party dictatorship or monarchy) is maintained. Considering the characteristics of these countries, the longer the durability, the less likely a democratic political system can be. 

There is widespread perception that democracy in Asia is declining. To confirm this, the polity score were compared with simple average by continent, and the results were shown in the figure below. The average of polity score in Europe is overwhelmingly high, while the average of North America, South America and Oceania are higher than Africa and Asia. Asia had a high growth rate due to the growth of democracy in the 1980s. However as decolonization of Africa proceeded, the average of Africa overtook the average of Asia. Thus the perception that democracy in Asia is declining may be reasonable. 

However it is excessive generalization to claim that democracy is declining in every region of Asia. The figure below shows that the trend of democratic growth in Asia has been stagnant for four years since 2014, but it also shows that there are different trends in different regions. East Asia has maintained its status as Japan (10), Mongolia (10), South Korea (8), China (-7) and North Korea (-10) and since the probability of change in their score seems to be very low, its average is estimated to be stable. In addition, South-eastern Asia, Southern Asia, Western Asia and Central Asia have been on the rise and fall for the past four years, but in the long run, we cannot conclude that democracy in Asia is declining. 

In the case of political ideology, the data was constructed by referring to each national website, news related to recent political trends, and Wikipedia. An authoritarian state, even if it advocated democracy, includes a country that is in power for a long time, or has no elections, or a monarchy that does not fall under religious fundamentalism. Countries that have no democratic election and advocate socialism or communism are classified as Socialist countries. Countries that moved from dictatorship to civil government, but the next election has yet to be done are classified as transition. A democratic state refers to a country where elections have been held democratically at least once since the start of the civilian government, while religious fundamentalism refers to a country where the head of an administrative body or a political institution is determined by religion. 

First, among countries classified as democracy, the countries that need to be watched carefully are Pakistan and Nepal. Pakistan is classified as a democracy but has a very strong military influence. The military does not intervene ostensibly in elections, such as running for office or coups, but is strongly engaged in political intervention. Nepal has an unusually large number of political parties advocating communism or socialism, with the Marxist Communist Party, which won the 2017 general elections, and the ruling party in the name of Nepal's Communist Party in combination with the Maoist Communist Party in 2018.

The socialist countries are the countries have no democratic elections and is a socialist or communist country, and in this analysis, China, North Korea, Vietnam and Laos, all classified as socialist countries, all maintain a socialist one-party dictatorship. The neoclassical states are Orthodox or powerful institutions with strong religious influence, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman, and are de facto countries of the same enactment. An authoritarian state is a country that maintains a dictatorship other than a socialist or neo-political state. Some of them advocate democracy, but others attempt to extend their power through undemocratic elections such as intervention in elections and suppression of opposition parties. Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar are monarchy countries, while Turkey, Kazakhstan, Cambodia, Bangladesh and Thailand are dictatorships, not monarchy states. Among them, Turkey and Bangladesh were classified as authoritarian countries, considering that undemocratic election issues, such as suppression of opposition parties, were revealed and long-term rule, although the president and prime minister were elected three times respectively through elections.

The countries undergoing a democratic transition are Afghanistan, Iraq, Armenia, East Timor and Uzbekistan, all of which have recently lost their dictators or escaped civil war, with the first civilian government in power or ahead of democratic elections. Accordingly, the direction of political ideology in the countries concerned is uncertain. Yemen is currently a civil war in which multiple countries participated, and has not been classified as a specific political ideology. 

Unlike Voice and Accountability, the five different WGIs show that democratic countries have the highest points and authoritarian states have the lowest points for WGIs, but the middle level distribution is relatively random compared to Voice and Accountability. This shows that democratic levels are not necessarily linked to the quality of governance. 

There is a perception that women will participate more in democratic countries than religious fundamentalism and authoritarianism. To confirm this, the ratio of female legislators in the House, which is provided in V-DEM data, was used. The unicameral National Assembly is regarded as the House of Representatives. The distribution by region below shows that women are participating in politics regardless of the polity score, political system or ideology.

An analysis of the correlation between the polity score and the ratio of female legislators showed that the correlation coefficient was very low at 0.15 and the p-value was 0.3172, which was not statistically significant. In Asia, countries with more than 30 percent of female legislators are Taiwan (10 points), East Timor (8 points), and Nepal (7 points) which have high levels of democracy. However countries less than 30 percent of female legislators are distributed regardless of the polity score.